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Thursday, 6 August 2009


In July 2009, the Home Office published the police recorded crime results for the 2008/09 financial year, co-inciding with the ITV1 six part series "Car Crime UK" being shown at 9pm on Tuesday evenings, presented by Sir Trevor McDonald.

Nice 1 Limited have performed an in depth analysis of the figures, and present this report, the first in a series that examine the results in fine detail, and present them in a more user friendly format.

This first report examines Car Crime in the UK, displaying the results so that the reader can see, at a glance the high, medium and low risk areas for Car Crime.

The report is displayed in descending order of the Car Crime by local authority district. The table above shows the Top 20 Local Authority districts according to police recorded crime.

The full report contains all 376 Local Authority districts in England & Wales. To view the full version click here or the table above.

If we examine the table, we can see that Slough was the worst district for police recorded car crime in 2008/09, with 3.2 times the average rate per 1000 population experienced by the rest of England & Wales. The total crime recorded for Slough is double the national average. The table is sorted in descending order of the districts experiencing the largest % above the national average. Districts higher than 10% of the national average are colour coded red. Districts within 10% of the national average are coloured green. Districts experiencing 10% or less than the national average number of incidents per 1000 of population, are coloured green.

An alternative version of this report sorted alphabetically for easier location of districts can be viewed by clicking here.

This analysis is drawn directly from Home Office & police recorded crime, making it the most accurate representation of car crime during the 2008/09 period.


However, even this report does not reflect the complete picture. The Home Office method of calculating the rate per 1000 is based on population figures for England & Wales. Vehicle crime must be assessed differently if it is to be accurately analysed. The population of England & Wales during this period was 54 million people. Not all citizens own a vehicle. The number of licensed vehicles for the same period in England & Wales was 30 million. The rate per 1000 would therefore be more accurately reported if expressed as a % of the licensed vehicles rather than population figures.

A separate crime analysis report has been completed to examine the implications of the population based calculations. This report is available online in the links section opposite and will form the basis of a further post shortly.

A further anomaly exists in the way the Home Office collect both police recorded crime and national survey statistics. The survey states that vehicle crime as a whole is under reported by the public by as much as 45%, suggesting that the actual vehicle crime incident rate is considerably higher. Again, this will be examined in more detail in a future report.

The former Home Secretary, Jacqui Smith, responded to a question in parliament by the the Shadow Home Secretary, the Rt Hon Chris Grayling MP. She confirmed that during the period in question, 18,599 car crime offences were reported as either burglary (when premises were entered to steal car keys), or robbery (when keys were taken from victims by force). The implications of this reporting process will be examined in a separate post and report. This report can be viewed by clicking it the links section opposite.

By clicking the table above you will now be able to see the total police recorded incidents of crime and car crime for each of the 376 districts of England & Wales.

Car crime represents 13% of all recorded crime. It is important to understand the implications of this initial report and others referred to in this article. The 10% decrease in car crime appearing in many force and Home Office media articles is likely to be considerably lower, and more likely to reflect an increase on previous years reported crime.

Bookmark this page or enter your e mail address (your privacy will be respected) in the sign up box opposite to receive updates as they happen from this site.

The team at Nice 1 Ltd welcome any enquiries, observations or suggestions that might benefit others, about the analysis reporting posted on these pages. Contact us via the contact me button below this post, or the contact details provided at the foot of the page.

The Crime Analysis Team

Nice 1 Limited Read more: http://www.blogdoctor.me/2007/02/expandable-post-summaries.html#ixzz0PTplKsFN

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